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Where will Storm Ophelia make landfall in the US? Here's what to expect if you're in the path

Currently dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, the storm will be officially named Ophelia once the winds attain speeds of at least 39 mph

A brewing tropical storm, currently known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, is posing a significant threat to the East Coast of the United States. Once it attains wind speeds of at least 39 miles per hour, it will be officially named Ophelia.

It is in the process of forming off the Florida coastline and is anticipated to intensify into a tropical storm as it nears the shores of North Carolina beginning on Friday, September 22.

What are the current conditions of the storm?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has already issued a Tropical Storm Warning for various areas, including Cape Fear, Albemarle, and Pamlico Sound in North Carolina, as well as parts of Delaware, southeastern Virginia, and sections of Chesapeake Bay.

Residents in these regions have been strongly advised to heed the guidance provided by local authorities while the warning remains in effect.

Coastal communities spanning from North Carolina to the Delmarva Peninsula are also under a Storm Surge Warning or Watch, underscoring the potential danger of coastal inundation.

Currently, Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 is situated approximately 345 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, moving northward at a speed of nine miles per hour. It presently sustains maximum winds of 35 miles per hour, with the possibility of stronger gusts.

The storm is expected to continue its northward trajectory through Friday before shifting to a north-northwestward to northward course, persisting into the weekend. By Friday night and early Saturday morning, the system's center is anticipated to approach the North Carolina coast.

Subsequently, Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 will continue its journey northward, potentially impacting Virginia and Maryland.

Which areas are expected to be most affected by storm surge?

The NHC's designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 indicates that it poses a genuine threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions and is expected to make landfall within the next 48 hours.

"So this is another one of those tricky things that the center and the impact zone are going to be kind of well separated," hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross told Fox Weather.

One of the most perilous aspects of this storm is the potential for a dangerous storm surge, which, when coupled with high tide, can inundate typically dry coastal regions due to rising waters penetrating inland. The highest storm surge levels are predicted to occur in eastern North Carolina, with estimates ranging from three to five feet.

"We also have Storm Surge Watches because the Storm Surge Watch means that the water could be more than three feet above high tide," Norcross said.

"When we look at that in more detail, we see that it's up to three feet down there - northern South Carolina into North Carolina. Then on Cape Hatteras, there's where the kind of the peak of this is - Cape Hatteras and then up north. So we're talking about in Pamlico Sound and then also up into Chesapeake Bay and the southern half of Chesapeake Bay," Norcross added.

Notably, a substantial portion of the Interstate 95 corridor is within the storm's projected path, encompassing major metropolitan areas like Washington DC, New York City, and southern New England.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 is expected to generate life-threatening storm surges along the coast and will bring about heavy rainfall and strong winds. The storm is likely to deposit several inches of rain across a vast swath of territory stretching from Florida to the Northeast and New England.

Impact of strong oceanic winds and rainfall predictions

The presence of strong oceanic winds may exacerbate coastal flooding and contribute to flash floods.

Weather experts anticipate rainfall amounts of two to four inches, with isolated areas in the mid-Atlantic states, from North Carolina to New Jersey, potentially receiving up to six inches. Northeastern regions and southern New England could witness rainfall totals of two to three inches.

Additionally, concerns have been raised regarding potential power outages, as the robust winds might cause trees to topple onto power lines. To preemptively mitigate the impact of rough seas associated with the storm, ferry operations between the Outer Banks and the mainland have already been suspended from Friday.