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US coronavirus peak expected on April 16 with 3,130 deaths projected in a single day: Report

In a grim forecast based on new data analyses, researchers also find that demand for ventilators and beds in US hospital ICUs will far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients on the peak date
UPDATED APR 6, 2020
(AP Photo/John Minchillo)
(AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Americans may need to brace themselves for the coronavirus peak on April 16, when 3,130 are projected to die in a single day. In a grim forecast based on new data analyses, researchers also find that demand for ventilators and beds in US hospital intensive care units (ICUs) will far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients on the peak date. 

The US research team attempted to answer an important question: Assuming social distancing measures are maintained, what are the forecasted gaps in available health service resources and the number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic for each state in the US? 

The model, created by researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine, shows that the US is a little over a week away from its peak resource use on April 15, when 140,823 hospital beds will be needed, but they will fall short of 36,654 beds.

While many people are expected to rely on ventilators to support breathing, the analysis found that the country might need to use 29,210 ICU beds, but there will be a shortage of 16,323 ICU beds. The model also projects the need for 24,828 ventilators by peak date. All COVID-19 projections made by IHME experts assume that full social distancing will continue through May 2020. 

COVID-19 projections for the US. (Source: IHME)
COVID-19 projections for the US. (Source: IHME)

Researchers also estimate that 81,766 Americans will die by August 4. In a previous analysis last month, the experts had forecasted that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths from COVID-19 over the next four months in the US. But the range could be large, from 38,242 to 162,106 deaths, they had warned. A previous estimate from the White House had suggested that up to 200,000 Americans may die. 

The analysis was developed in response to requests from the University of Washington School of Medicine and other US hospital systems and state governments working to determine when COVID-19 would overwhelm their ability to care for patients. 

The estimates are based on an extensive range of information and data sources, including local governments, national governments and the World Health Organization (WHO), and government declarations on the implementation of social distancing policies. The other parameters used for the analysis are data from the American Hospital Association on licensed hospital bed and ICU capacity and average annual utilization of these services by state, data on COVID-19-related demand for ICU services in the US, and age-specific death rate data from China, Italy, South Korea and the US.

The researchers have also done state-by-state data analysis of projected demand for hospital services, including the availability of ventilators, beds, and general hospital beds. New York, the epicenter of the pandemic in the US, for example, has two days until peak resource use on April 8. By that date,  hospitals in New York will need 25,486 beds, but they will fall short of 12,476 beds. As for ICU beds, hospitals in New York are expected to fall short of 5,946 beds. It has three days until projected peak in daily deaths: 878 COVID-19 deaths are forecasted on April 10. The researchers project 15,618 deaths by August 4. 

The numbers for US and for the individual states are dynamic and changes as the situation evolves, say experts. 

COVID-19 projections for New York. (Source: IHME)

COVID-19 projections for New York. (Source: IHME)

In Illinois, cases will peak in six days and 208 COVID-19 deaths are estimated on April 12. The state is also projected to fall short of 722 ICU beds by April 16. California is 11 days away until projected peak in daily deaths. It is forecasted to see 70 COVID-19 deaths on April 17, its predicted peak and 1,783 deaths are projected by August 4. Again, Georgia is 14 days away until peak resource use on April 20, when the state will see a shortfall of 743 ICU beds. Deaths will peak on April 21, when 137 are predicted to die.

The US is now leading the world in the number of confirmed cases as well as deaths. According to the John Hopkins tracker, over 337,600 cases have been confirmed from across the US, and over 9,640 have died in the pandemic. 

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