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How strong is Storm Zeta and when will it make landfall? It may become a hurricane and hit US Gulf Coast midweek

The 27th named storm this year is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday

The Gulf Coast is facing the threat of yet another dangerous storm. A tropical depression east of Mexico strengthened into tropical storm Zeta on Sunday and is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which has advised residents in these areas to monitor the progress of Zeta, the 27th named storm of the 2020 hurricane season. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by late Monday. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico, while a tropical storm warning is in effect for Pinar del Rio Cuba, reveals an update posted by the NHC at 2 am EDT on October 26. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A tropical storm warning implies that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

“At 2 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of tropical storm Zeta was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 83.9 West. Zeta is drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 miles per hour (4 km/hour), but a faster northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday,” says the October 26 advisory. It adds, “Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.”

According to scientists, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of Zeta’s track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local amounts of 4 inches are possible across Southern Florida and the Keys through Tuesday, with isolated storm total accumulations of 8 inches.

Between Wednesday and Friday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local 6-inch amounts, is expected across sections of the US Gulf Coast and the southern US near and in advance of Zeta. Heavy rainfall will spread north into the Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians and portions of the Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta late in the week. The expected rainfall could lead to flash flooding and minor river flooding, caution experts.

University of Florida professor Michael McDonald, who specializes in American elections, tweeted that Zeta could disrupt in-person early voting in Republican areas of Florida’s panhandle later this week. 

Governor John Bel Edwards has urged all Louisianans to monitor Zeta as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. “It is unfortunate we face another tropical threat this late in a very active season. We must roll up our sleeves, like we always do, and prepare for a potential impact to Louisiana. This storm is expected to make landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast by midweek, meaning we have a few days to prepare,” said Edwards. He added, “As we’ve seen this hurricane season, a tropical threat during the ongoing Covid-19 emergency is challenging, but something we can handle. We will once again find solutions for this potential threat while work to help the other areas of the state impacted by Hurricanes Laura and Delta. If tropical storm Zeta does become a serious threat, we stand ready to ramp up our actions as a state to meet the needs of our people and communities.”