Is Europe on the brink of another continental war? Russia makes stark threat to Sweden, Finland
Before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his invasion of Ukraine, he was clear that it was in retaliation only to NATO's swift advance eastwards. With Ukraine now on the verge of falling, it appears Putin hasn't had enough. In a not-so-veiled threat on February 25, Russia announced that Sweden and Finland could face similar consequences if they too attempted to join the military alliance.
With the conflict in Ukraine entering day 3 as of February 26, things don't look too good at the moment. Russian forces have captured the Chernobyl power plant and are now within miles of the capital of Kyiv. Fighting has broken out in several areas, with the Russian advance only being slowed down by the brave Ukrainian defenders like the 'Ghost of Kyiv'. Nonetheless, there are genuine concerns the nation could fall by February 27, which would leave the west with the big question - do they deploy the military?
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NATO has announced the activation of its NATO Response Force (NRF) for the first time in history, which indicates that the west is seriously considering military deployment. However, whether they will or not will depend on which direction Putin decides to move next, and it seems like he's made up his mind.
Russia threatens Sweden, Finland
Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, there were rumors Putin wouldn't stop with just Ukraine. There were fears he could extend his conquest further into eastern Europe, in a bid to rebuild the Soviet Union. Initially, Putin argued it was only in retaliation to NATO's eastward expansion, which has been gathering steam over the past decade. Since 2004, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia are just some of the many eastern European nations to join the military alliance.
So far, the nordic nations of Sweden and Finland have not joined the alliance, but like Ukraine were considering doing so. On February 24, Finish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said "the debate on NATO membership in Finland will change," following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While she did not specify which way that conversation would change, it appears she may have little choice.
Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said during a press conference the very next day, "Finland and Sweden should not base their security on damaging the security of other countries and their accession to NATO can have detrimental consequences and face some military and political consequences." Those comments were later posted to Twitter by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
💬#Zakharova: We regard the Finnish government’s commitment to a military non-alignment policy as an important factor in ensuring security and stability in northern Europe.
— MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) February 25, 2022
☝️Finland’s accession to @NATO would have serious military and political repercussions. pic.twitter.com/eCY5oG23rL
Zakharova's comments came in light of the news that Sweden and Finland would join a NATO summit on February 25. Shortly after that meeting, the leaders of both nations indicated that they would remain out of the alliance, at least for the time being. "After a crisis, we will see what further action is needed," noted Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto. The Swedish Prime Minister added, "In a situation like this it is important that Sweden's long-standing security policy stays firm."
So for now, it seems as if Putin has the west dancing to his tune. His threats have clearly been heard, and it seems like nations are eager not to engage him further. Nonetheless, NATO appears to be preparing for the possibility of war on any one of its members. The NRF activation means that troops are "more ready to go if called upon." That includes the 8,500 US personnel that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin put on high alert back in January.