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What if Trump doesn't concede despite a loss? Experts say GOP may push him out to save its own future

A number of experts shared their thoughts with MEAWW on the engaging presidential election
UPDATED NOV 5, 2020
(Getty Images)
(Getty Images)

The presidential election of 2020 has been an engaging affair. Incumbent Donald Trump has always given an indication that he will stop short of conceding defeat because he believes the mail-in ballot arrangement chosen for this year’s battle is less than transparent. On the other hand, the Democrats, led by former vice-president Joe Biden, have been critical of the commander-in-chief over his response to the coronavirus pandemic and the economic hardships that the country has faced besides the race protests.

On Wednesday, November 4, Trump made a shocking claim at a press conference that he has won the election and called further counting of votes as invalid and threatened to go to the Supreme Court. His words uttered at a press conference at the White House stunned all — from experts to common people — as he was accused of de-legitimizing the election, the most important procedure in any functional democracy.

In this photo illustration a pencil lies on a US presidential election mail-in ballot received by a US citizen living abroad that shows current US Republican President Donald Trump and his main contender, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, among the choices on September 21, 2020, in Berlin, Germany (Getty Images)

MEAWW spoke to some experts on the proceedings and they came up with some insightful responses.

‘Violence may ensue if Trump doesn’t leave’

When asked what if President Trump refuses to concede defeat, Micheal Genovese, president of Global Policy Institute at Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles, said the incumbent has already warned that he sees fraud in some of the states that he is losing and will challenge several state results in court. Fearing violence might follow if the president refuses to concede, Genovese said: “He signaled this weeks ago and seems intent on pursuing that option. It will further divide an already deeply divided country, and elevate the toxic politics that already characterizes American politics. Should the president lose and refuse to leave, turmoil and some violence might ensue. It could get very ugly.”

Dr Kaeten Mistry, senior lecturer in American History at the Department of American Studies, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, said Trump has been sowing the seeds of the doubt over the election’s authenticity since weeks. “In his first speech after polls closed, he declared victory and claimed he'd go to the Supreme Court even though counting was still taking place. Both are false but indicate that he has no plans to concede,” he told MEAWW.

President Donald Trump (Getty Images)

Professor Russell Lucas, associate professor of International Relations and Global Studies at Michigan State University, also called Trump’s claim to be false but said he will be under pressure to not concede. Predicting the legal battles continuing for weeks, Lucas said: “President Trump last night falsely claimed victory in the face of all evidence. His campaign also is demanding a recount of the vote in Wisconsin and filed lawsuits to halt vote counting in Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So, legal maneuvers may last for a few weeks.”

‘GOP will push Trump out to reduce damage’

He, however, said a Biden victory might not come down to the votes in one particular state and that will put Trump under pressure to concede. What if the incumbent still doesn’t? According to Lucas: “If he does not, the transition period may be rough until January 20.  If the president refuses to step down after an official loss, the Republican Party elites may work to push him out so that their party does not suffer significant future damage.”

MEAWW also asked the experts whether Biden will be able to run his administration smoothly if the GOP continues to have its majority in the Senate which looks likely at the moment.

Biden presidency and GOP-controlled Senate… well

Mistry felt the Democrats have not seen a wave unlike what some people had predicted. He also said that Mitch McConnell, who won his seventh term this time, will continue to play a key role in a GOP-dominated Senate. “There were high Democratic hopes of flipping the Senate at the outset. These hopes have ebbed, and it certainly won't be a Democratic wave. Again, it’s still early but the final tally will be tight and could even rely on the victorious vice president breaking a tie. If Biden were to win and the GOP held the Senate, it is hard to see much being accomplished in the coming years. With Mitch McConnell (current Senate majority leaders) in situ, and given his role during the Obama years, a Republican Senate is unlikely to play ball.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Getty Images)

Lucas felt going by the trend, it was less likely that the Dems could flip the Senate to their favor and a continued dominance of the GOP in the chamber would make it harder for a Biden administration at every opportunity, just like it was witnessed in the closing years of Barack Obama. “If the Senate stays in Republican hands, it is likely that it’s Republican leadership will work to obstruct President Biden at every opportunity – similar to how it functioned under President Obama.  Now, however, the House of Representatives will be under Democratic control,” he said.

Genovese, on the other hand, said it would be difficult for the blue party to wrest control of the Senate and with cooperative ventures with the Congress in a divided government (given a Biden victory) looking difficult, presidentialism unilateralism could be more likely. John Dinan, Politics Professor at North Carolina’s Wake Forest University, said it was almost certain that the US will see a divided government for the next few years. He said a divided government is not something unique in American politics with rival parties controlling the presidency and the Congress and he too made a forecast that administration will see more through executive orders rather than legislation in the Congress.

‘Hopes over one-sided legislation in major areas to remain unfulfilled’ 

“Divided government is actually the normal state of affairs in US politics, as one party has controlled the house, senate, and presidency for only brief periods during the last several decades, for a 2-year period during the early Trump presidency, for a 2-year period during the early Obama presidency, for just over four years during the George W Bush presidency, and for a 2-year period during the Clinton presidency. It is what the US has been operating under for the last two years of the Trump presidency. And it will continue. It means that passing major legislation through Congress will be highly challenging and downright impossible on controversial policy issues. And it means that governance will take place almost entirely through executive orders and administrative agency regulations rather than through congressional legislation,” he told MEAWW, adding that hopes that major legislation in areas like climate change and immigration would be passed under a government controlled by the Democrats now remain highly unlikely to materialize.

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