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Coronavirus: Expo 2020 Dubai to launch in October despite outbreak, but will it save UAE from another recession?

When Dubai was awarded the chance to host the expo in 2020, it was a moment of celebration as it was expected to help boost the country's economy
UPDATED MAR 20, 2020
(Getty Images)
(Getty Images)

With economists predicting a global recession as COVID-19 (novel Coronavirus) spreads rapidly, most events around the world are being canceled or postponed. However, the organizers of Expo 2020, which is set to take place later this year in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, insist that the event will continue as scheduled.

The announcement has raised eyebrows as many continue to question whether the pandemic will abate this year. At the time of writing, there were 198,155 confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection and 7,954 deaths.

The organizers of Expo 2020 in Dubai said the event remains "on track" in a statement released this week. "In common with other organizations, Expo 2020 Dubai is closely monitoring ongoing developments and taking sensible precautions to manage and mitigate the risk to all those involved in the Expo," the spokesman said in a statement.

"As we continue to prepare for this event, we will be adjusting planned preparations, as changing circumstances require," he said. "Expo 2020 is not due to open until late October and we continue on track."

The World Expo exhibition was first held in London in 1851. The Great Exhibition, as it is often called, was an idea of Queen Victoria's husband Prince Albert and is usually considered to be the first international exhibition of manufactured products.

Expo 2020 Dubai celebrates 2 Years To Go through a specially choreographed show of the Dubai Fountain and countdown on the Burj Khalifa at Burj Park on October 20, 2018, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (Christopher Pike/Getty Images)

The exhibitions also leave behind a legacy which includes the Eiffel Tower in Paris France, the Memorial Hall in Philadelphia and the Japanese Tea Garden in San Francisco's Golden Gate Park. The light bulb and the Ferris wheel dazzled those at the 1893 fair in Chicago. The X-ray followed at Buffalo's 1901 fair and Seattle's Space Needle opened to visitors at the 1962 fair.

The last expo was held in Milan in 2015 and was said to be a failure, marred by anti-austerity protests, cost overruns and allegations of corruption. Even Pope Francis said too much money was wasted on the expo by the Vatican, which had invested €3M in its pavilion before his election.

When Dubai was awarded the chance to host the expo in 2020, it was welcomed as a successful transition from its post-recession days. The Emirate has now invested heavily in the event, expecting over 25M visitors, of which 14M were expected from outside the country. The event is to be held from October 2020 to April 2021.

The event was expected to boost the country's economy by AED 122.6B ($33.4B) and support 905,200 job-years between 2013 and 2031, according to analysts with Ernst and Young. The event is expected to continue boosting the country's economy due to expected high tourism in the years following the expo. Moreover, the event was estimated to contribute 1.5% to the United Arab Emirates' GDP.

While other countries are joining in on investing in Expo 2020, Dubai has been banking a lot on it with an investment of $7B (USD) in construction costs. Projects for the Expo 2020 include the Al Wasl Dome, a 65-meter-high (213-foot) structure that will see videos and designs projected across it. There is also the Sustainability Pavilion, which recalls the towers of New York’s 1964 world fair. It will be covered in solar panels and surrounded by similarly paneled "energy trees" to make it a zero-energy structure. 

Dubai is known for its extravagant architecture (Tom Dulat/Getty Images)

However, with the coronavirus pandemic spreading fast, many countries have instituted travel bans to stem the spread of the disease. The United Arab Emirates itself has suspended flights to certain countries, though last week there were rumors that the country was suspending all incoming and outgoing flights.

Local businesses have already started feeling the effect of the pandemic and many are hoping the economy will be back up and running once the Expo 2020 rolls out. The added pressure of falling oil prices puts a strain on the country's economy.

Experts say that a vaccine for COVID-19 may be available for mass production only after 12-18 months. Moreover, a lot can happen before October 2020 — especially considering that Dubai is in a region troubled by geopolitical issues.

Within the third week of March, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases more than tripled and with more countries reporting confirmed cases and deaths. It now seems unlikely that the pandemic could be solved within the next seven months.

Concerns over a global fair may seem trivial when compared to the implications of the coronavirus pandemic. However, the UAE and specifically Dubai — which does not have as much oil reserves as its sister Emirate, Abu Dhabi — have invested a lot.

Moreover, many jobs depend on the country's survival, especially for its large South Asian population. In the aftermath of the 2008 recession, many South Asians had to leave the country amid mounting debts. The country was littered with abandoned cars that were left to gather dust and many companies came crashing down. 

The UAE' prospect of making 2020 its breakout year and truly freeing itself from the shackles of the 2008 recession continues to look dim, especially with the falling stocks and oil prices. One can see a clearer picture only after a couple of months but till then we can only hope that life goes back to normal again.

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