Coronavirus: US will face 'tragic suffering' like Italy unless it follows South Korea’s methods to curb outbreak
A US doctor, also a former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner, has given a stark warning that the US will go through tragic suffering unless it takes aggressive measures like South Korea with its massive testing and a complete ban on social gatherings.
“In the US, we face two alternative but hard outlooks with #COVID19: that we follow a path similar to South Korea or one closer to Italy. We probably lost the chance to have an outcome like South Korea. We must do everything to avert the tragic suffering being borne by Italy,” tweeted Dr Scott Gottlieb, a research fellow at American Enterprise Institute, a public policy think tank.
Dr Gottlieb says that the US’ fate rests on the “entities that are capable of sharply ramping testing and distributing the services” nationally.
“It starts with aggressive screening to get people diagnosed. While testing capacity expands it is not evenly distributed to places most needed, we’re far behind current caseloads. Too many people still can’t get screened. So we can’t identify clusters and isolate disease,” he says.
So far, over 1,700 Americans have been infected with COVID-19 and 40 have died.
What has South Korea done?
After cases started going down in China, there was a massive and sudden spike in South Korea, Italy, and Iran. However, South Korea — once the largest coronavirus outbreak outside China — saw more recoveries from COVID-19 than new infections for the first time on March 13. The pandemic emerged in South Korea in January, but the rate of increase has been slowing down. “The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) recorded 110 new coronavirus cases on Friday compared with 114 a day earlier, taking the national tally to 7,979. The death toll rose by three to 70. In contrast, 177 patients were released from hospitals where they had been isolated for treatment, the KCDC said,” reports Reuters.
So far, over 7,800 have fallen sick in South Korea, and an estimated 70 have died from the infection.
(Lee Moo-ryul/Yonhap via AP)
Experts credit South Korea's extensive testing for curbing coronavirus spread. South Korea is now testing 15,000 people a day, with a maximum capacity of 22,000. This is more people per capita than anywhere else in the world.
“In terms of per capita testing, Korea has run 3,600 tests per 1 million population. In contrast, the US has just run five tests per 1 million people,” reports NPR.
According to BBC, South Korea has created a network of 96 public and private laboratories to test for coronavirus. “Health officials believe this approach may be saving lives. The fatality rate for coronavirus in South Korea is 0.7%. Globally the World Health Organization has reported 3.4% - but scientists estimate that the death rate is lower because not all cases are reported,” says the report.
What's the situation in Italy?
In Italy, which was hit by coronavirus at about the same time as South Korea, millions are locked down and thousands of people have died from the coronavirus. An estimated three weeks ago, Italy barely had a coronavirus problem. The country now has the highest number of cases and deaths outside China. According to March 13 figures, the novel coronavirus has claimed over 1,000 lives in Italy and over 12,400 have been infected.
Italy took the China approach this week. They put themselves on lockdown and movement is now restricted to urgent medical or professional needs. “This week Italy put in place draconian measures — restricting movement and closing all stores except for pharmacies, groceries and other essential services. But they did not come in time to prevent the surge of cases that has deeply taxed the capacity even of a well-regarded health care system,” reports the New York Times.
In less than three weeks, coronavirus cases have overloaded and severely strained the country’s healthcare system. “Italy is now facing its biggest crisis since World War II. The government has pledged to spend $28bn to tackle it - three times more than it estimated it would need just a week ago. The economy is now expected to slide into deep recession,” says the BBC.
However, Italian authorities are optimistic and say that the impact of the restrictions could be seen in two weeks.
Italy’s Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio also told the BBC that the measures imposed in the first area of the outbreak were proving effective. “Two weeks after the first 10 towns in northern Italy were declared a red zone and put under lockdown, he said they had no new infections. This then served as a model to tighten measures across the country,” reports BBC.
Italy’s situation could be US’ crisis tomorrow
Italy’s situation today could be the US' situation tomorrow, warn experts. Unlike South Korea, the US has messed up its testing system, and as a result, many Americans are going undiagnosed.
From March 8, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has conducted fewer than 90 tests. A little more than 1,700 have been tested by the CDC and there is a lot of testing happening in state labs now. The Trump administration promised to run a million tests but they admitted that they delivered only 75,000 tests.
“Only big national clinical labs like LabCorp and Quest can fill the void. A lot rides on them now. These are great American companies led by outstanding management teams, staffed with deeply committed, public health-minded people who live in communities hurt by this virus. The national interest turns on their efforts. We must scale their ability to sharply expand screening,” says Dr Gottlieb.
He explains this implies getting diagnostic kits approved that the companies can run on their automated platforms to dramatically scale testing.
“Public health labs have been an outstanding pillar. They’re working around the clock. They’re the nation’s backbone of response. But they aren’t richly funded and are being maxed out against current facilities. Only clinical labs have the ability to sharply scale the efforts,” says Dr Gottlieb.
The expert also called for an aggressive ban on social gatherings and social distancing. He recommends that small gatherings and parties should be postponed for the next month or two.
“Social separation works. Each day we delay hard decisions, everyday leaders don’t demand collective action, the depth of epidemic will be larger. We must act now. We have a narrow window to avert a worse outcome. The virus is firmly rooted in our cities. We’re losing time,” he says.
Dr Gottlieb says that business is leading the way on mitigation and social distancing, filling a void left by policymakers. But shutting down NBA games is not enough, this must be practiced in places large and small, he adds.
Dr Gottlieb adds, “We have two hard months ahead of us. We need to sacrifice some of the trappings of normal life to reduce the scope and severity of what’s ahead. We must protect the vulnerable. We must act collectively in common interest. We must work together.”