Coronavirus: Carbon emissions may see biggest drop since World War II as nations scale back economic activity
With some of the world’s biggest economies coming to a standstill, carbon emissions could see the sharpest drop since World War 2.
Rob Jackson, who chairs the scientific steering committee at the Global Carbon Project, told Reuters in an email that emissions could fall by more than 5% year-on-year -- the first dip since a 1.4% reduction after the 2008 financial crisis.
“I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 5% or more drop in carbon dioxide emissions this year, something not seen since the end of World War 2. Neither the fall of the Soviet Union nor the various oil or savings and loan crises of the past 50 years are likely to have affected emissions the way this crisis is,” Jackson, a professor of Earth System Science at Stanford University, California, said..
Other studies have shown drop in carbon emissions in some countries due to lockdowns following the COVID-19 pandemic. Over 1,119,100 cases have been reported and over 58,950 have died in the pandemic so far, shows the John Hopkins tracker.
According to one analysis, China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell by around 25% in the first four weeks following Chinese New Year, equivalent to around 200m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2). “Demand slowly returned to normal levels over an extended seven-week period, bringing the reduction so far to around 250MtCO2, with emissions some 18% lower than usual levels,” says the report by Carbon Brief
In the four weeks, starting February 3, average coal consumption at power plants reporting daily data fell to a four-year low, with no sign of recovery in the most recent data, covering March 1. “Taken together, the reductions in coal and crude oil use indicate a reduction in carbon emissions of 25% or more, compared with the same two-week period following the Chinese new year holiday in 2019. This amounts to approximately 100MtCO2 – or 6% of global emissions over the same period,” says the report.
By combining satellite observations with atmospheric modelling, the European Union’s Earth observation programme, Copernicus, has shown that PM2.5 levels over China for February were substantially lower -- by 20-30% -- than for the previous three years.
In another analysis, NASA and European Space Agency (ESA) pollution monitoring satellites detected significant decreases in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) -- an air pollutant closely associated with fossil-fuel burning -- over China. The fall in N02 pollution was estimated to be about 10-30%. “There is evidence that the change is at least partly related to the economic slowdown following the outbreak of coronavirus,” says the study.
Yet another assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on European power and carbon markets shows a substantial drop in emissions to the tune of 388.8m tonnes for 2020 compared to a pre-COVID environment.
Pollution drop is short-lived
This is good news for health as air pollution kills an estimated seven million people worldwide every year. The World Health Organization (WHO) data shows that 9 out of 10 people breathe air containing high levels of pollutants.
But experts say this drop in carbon emissions will be short-lived: as econimies recover, there will be a subsequent emissions surge. Experts emphasize the need to start moving to cleaner energy as a sustainable and long-term solution.
“In terms of direct, physical impacts, yes we’re seeing a slowdown in some emissions. But of course, what really matters is cumulative emissions. If it’s short lived, it’s not really touching the tip of the iceberg,” Andrea Dutton, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told the National Geographic.
In a stark warning, a researcher from the University of Melbourne says that COVID-19’s hit to the global economy is cutting air pollution, but the eventual recovery could leave the environment worse off and further behind in reducing emissions.
“Although air pollution is dropping right now, in the longer-term COVID-19 may ultimately be bad news for the environment. During the global financial crisis, a brief drop in greenhouse gas emissions was more than offset by a sharp rebound in pollution as the world economy recovered,” says Dr Gabriel da Silva from University of Melbourne
He explains that unlike many other air pollutants, carbon dioxide exists in the atmosphere for a long time – around a hundred years. That means a short-term drop in emissions will not cause a decrease in its atmospheric concentration.
A weak global economy also threatens investment in renewable energy sources, particularly given the availability of cheap oil. Dr da Silva further cautions there is also a risk that environmental policies will be relaxed during this time of crisis, as is already starting to happen in the US. Enforcement may also become more difficult, she adds. “If the present crisis isn’t seen as an opportunity for widespread structural change, we won’t be breathing easier for long,” he says.
Evidence from China reinforces Dr da Silva's point. Coal consumption at power plants and oil-refinery utilization bottomed out in early March and returned to a normal range by the fourth week of March, about seven weeks after the country was originally going to return to work, on February 3. “Nitrogen dioxide pollution levels, measured both from NASA satellites and Chinese government stations, have also returned to normal, indicating that current emission levels both in urban areas and in industrial centers are close to pre-crisis levels,” says the Carbon Brief report.
Experts have also called for nations to do more to rein in emissions. A UN report last year, for instance, said that the target of keeping global warming to well below 2ºC -- if not 1ºC -- can be achieved only by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors, including land and food. According to the experts, agriculture, forestry and other land use activities accounted for around 13% of carbon dioxide, 44% of methane, and 82% of nitrous oxide emissions from human activities globally during 2007-2016, representing 23% of the total global greenhouse emissions. Stating that about one-third of the food produced is lost or wasted, the report called for major improvements in the way food is produced and managed.