No guarantee Covid-19 vaccine will ever be developed, warn experts as Trump promises one by year-end
As countries are pinning their hopes on a coronavirus vaccine to end the crisis, an expert thinks there is a possibility of never finding one at all.
The line of thought stems from the fact that we have not come up with vaccines against HIV, for instance. "There are some viruses that we still do not have vaccines against," Dr David Nabarro, a professor of global health at Imperial College London, who also serves as a special envoy to the WHO on Covid-19, told CNN.
Under these circumstances, we might have to learn to live without a vaccine. "It is absolutely essential that all societies everywhere get themselves into a position where they are able to defend against the coronavirus as a constant threat and to be able to go about social life and economic activity with the virus in our midst," Nabarro told CNN.
The statement comes amid President Donald Trump's claims of finding a working vaccine by the end of the year. “We think we will have a vaccine by the end of this year and we are pushing very hard. We are building supply lines, we even have the final vaccine," he said at a Fox News town hall at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington.
He added that many manufactures are close to developing one soon. Though Trump is confident of an effective vaccine, other experts think it is too early to guarantee it.
"We can't make an absolute assumption that a vaccine will appear at all, or if it does appear, whether it will pass all the tests of efficacy and safety," Nabarro said.
Some experts think Covid-19 vaccines are doable
But some experts are optimistic because the new coronavirus does not mutate like HIV. The high rate of mutations in the latter makes vaccine design a challenge.
Dr Anthony Fauci estimated that it could take at least 18 months to develop one. Last week, Trump launched an ambitious Manhattan Project-style project called Operation Warp Speed to accelerate the development of a Covid-19 vaccine. Reports suggest that the US officials are looking at 14 potential candidates, hoping that at least one enters American markets by early January.
Some experts have cautioned that rushing vaccines could compromise their safety and efficacy. But Dr Fauci believes developing vaccines in such a short span is doable. He told NBC News, "We want to go quickly, but we want to make sure it is safe and it is effective."
Dr Deborah Birx, a member of the Coronavirus Task Force, explained that testing five or six potential vaccines at once can help speed up the process. "And so on paper, it is possible," she told FOX news. In reality, it boils down to how we can execute it around the globe, she added.
"We have never accelerated a vaccine in a year to 18 months. It does not mean it is impossible, but it will be quite a heroic achievement," Dr Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, told CNN.