Trump has 0% chance of winning a Nobel Peace Prize unless he finalizes deal with North Korea, Iran or Taliban: Experts
President Donald Trump lamented it was unfair he never got the Nobel peace prize as he addressed the United Nations on Monday. “I would get a Nobel prize for a lot of things, if they give it out fairly, which they don’t,” he said, before recalling how his predecessor Barack Obama was surprisingly awarded one of the world's most prestigious accolades in 2009.
Obama was given the peace prize for his "extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between people" despite having just become president. “They gave one to Obama immediately upon his ascent to the presidency and he had no idea why he got it. You know what? That was the only thing I agreed with him on,” Trump quipped.
While debates continue over Obama's nomination for the award, what are the chances of Trump actually winning the Nobel Peace Prize?
"American presidents don’t win very often, and when they do, they generally have a pattern of acting in concert with European allies or having secured a major peace agreement," Stephen Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the University of Mary Washington, told MEA WorldWide (MEAWW).
According to him, President Trump has followed neither of these approaches, at least not thus far.
In fact, Trump's efforts to develop closer ties between the US and Russia are viewed rather negatively by much of Europe, Farnsworth noted. Also, his failures to work collaboratively with NATO and the G7 on a number of international issues further isolates him from the "western alliance."
"The president’s harsh rhetoric, including vows to launch devastating military attacks against adversaries, does not suggest he is trying to win the prize," the professor asserted. "His relative silence on major human rights crises, including the Palestinians, Syrian refugees, Yemen, and even the US-based journalist killed by the Saudi leadership, also undermines his chances of being recognized for the Nobel."
It might be too early to determine if the president's aggressive rhetoric will subdue his potential rivals. Farnsworth thinks the results are not favorable for him as yet, considering China has still not conceded in the ongoing trade war and continues to pressure weaker nations over contested sea lanes.
"Iran has not backed down in response to tighter sanctions," the international affairs expert added. "North Korea keeps improving its missiles despite a presidential summit. The Peace conference with the Taliban fell apart before it even started. The Russians are still in Ukraine."
Until Trump is successful in at least some of these areas, he cannot expect to be felicitated with the revered honor.
"President Trump has 0% chance to win a Nobel Prize this year," Michael A. Genovese, President of the Global Policy Institute at Loyola Marymount University, told MEAWW. "The international community generally sees him as an impediment to peacemaking, and therefore, will not take his nomination seriously."
Genovese said the commander-in-chief has not contributed to peacekeeping but has, instead, been rattling the cage of countries like Iran, where his "stance and policies have made war more, not less, likely."
"Trump's in-your-face, attack personality is designed to spread fear in rivals, not elicit cooperation," he explained. "He has a peace through intimidation approach that does not bring rivals together but drives them apart. His constant threats ("I will unleash fire and fury the likes of which the world has never seen") are based on the assumption that he can bully others into backing down."
Speaking of Obama's 2009 nomination, Professor Farnsworth said he won the Nobel Prize largely because "he wasn’t President Bush," who had his share of differences with European leaders just like Trump.
"[Obama] won the award largely on what he promised to do, setting the US on a course that involved greater international collaboration in the construction of international policy," he said.
According to Professor Genovese, Obama was bestowed with the honor "as a sign of hope rather than as a recognition of his contribution to peace."
"It was both a slap in the face to Bush, and a plea for Obama to pursue different policies," he added.
Despite being called a warmonger by several of his critics, Trump's efforts towards de-escalating tensions with North Korea have been widely recognized by leaders such as South Korean president Moon Jae-in. However, it would be difficult for the POTUS to claim credit unless a definitive peace deal is reached.
"Of course, if in the future there is a significant peace deal with North Korea, the calculation on a future Peace Prize could change," Professor Genovese said. "But as of now, he will not be going to Stockholm to receive the prize."