US winter could be warmer than normal, wetter in the North and with drought in the South: NOAA
Most of the United States will have a warmer than normal winter, the NOAA Climate Prediction said in its Winter Outlook report released on October 17. "Although below-average temperatures are not favored, cold weather is anticipated and some areas could still experience a colder-than-average winter. Wetter-than-average weather is most likely across the Northern Tier of the U.S. during winter, which extends from December through February," it said.
Northern Plains and Midwest are most likely to have an equal chance of either being colder or warmer than expected. Warmer than normal temperatures will most likely affect Hawaii and Alaska. Upper Mississippi Valley and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below average, near average or above-average temperatures. No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter, the Centre said.
Alaska and Hawaii, parts of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes as well as parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are expected to have more precipitation than the average while Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma and northern and central California is expected to be drier than average. Drought is expected in the South and severe conditions may prevail in the Southwest, central parts of Texas along with areas in the Southeast.
El Niño and La Niña, which influence weather patterns in the country are not expected to develop and it will be impacted by Arctic Oscillation. Arctic Oscillation is much less predictable than El Nino and La Nina and can be predicted only a few weeks in advance.
"Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The next update will be available on November 21.