'The Big One': Experts warn of possible 6.7 magnitude earthquake in Bay Area by 2030, with Alameda at risk of devastation
ALAMEDA, CALIFORNIA: Experts have warned that the Bay Area is expected to experience a major earthquake in the next few years, the likes of which have not been seen in decades. This catastrophic event, dubbed the "Big One" by concerned seismologists, is expected within the next seven years, according to a United States Geological Survey (USGS) report.
The report reveals that the picturesque city of Alameda, which was once a peninsula connected to Oakland by a narrow land bridge, is particularly susceptible to liquefaction, a process in which the soil loses strength when the ground shakes and then behaves like a liquid. This could cause significant damage and even complete collapse of buildings and infrastructure.
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More than a century ago, the landmass was excavated to expand a shipping strait, isolating the city as an island. In the last hundred years, the city experienced considerable growth, expanding by hundreds of acres through land reclamation efforts. Although the land reclamation efforts took place in the early 1900s, scientists have been urging the city of about 76,000 people to review its earthquake preparedness for years. According to Christine Goulet, head of earthquake research for the USGS, Alameda is at risk of collapse in the expected earthquake, with the city likely to suffer the most severe consequences, Daily Mail reports.
'A house of cards'
Goulet has likened Alameda's earthquake preparedness to "a "house of cards" because of the unstable nature of the land reclamation project implemented more than a century ago. Goulet, who holds a doctorate in civil engineering from UCLA, said the city's population of about 76,000 could collapse before 2030 if adequate measures are not taken. The scientist warned that most of the six-mile-wide landmass is susceptible to liquefaction because wet marshland pumped from the bottom of San Francisco Bay likely has not been properly compacted.
Alameda would be unsafe in case of the 'Big One'
She said of the process, "What happens is they dredge material from nearby sea or bay which has a mix of clay and silt, and then they just put that in without compacting it appropriately." According to Goulet, most of Alameda's development is outside the original land mass, with numerous high-rise apartments built along the shoreline, extending well beyond the city's natural shoreline. However, the city's earthquake preparedness is exacerbated by the fact that it has only five access points, four of which are drawbridges that are usually raised, leaving few options for evacuees in an emergency.
In the event of an urgent evacuation, the most viable option would be to use the city's underwater tube, which extends 3.5 miles and connects to Oakland. However, in the event of an earthquake, this passageway could be extremely dangerous, and there is a strong possibility that it would be overwhelmed if "The Big One" (magnitude 6.7 or greater) were to strike.