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'End of Biden': Internet writes eulogy for Biden's 2024 chances after RFK Jr goes at it alone

A recent Fox News poll, conducted just days after Kennedy's announcement, reveals numbers that underline the potential threat to Biden's campaign

WASHINGTON, DC: Robert F Kennedy Jr's recent announcement to run for president as an independent candidate has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, with early surveys indicating that he may potentially jeopardize President Joe Biden's re-election campaign.

Challenging the status quo

A recent Fox News poll, conducted just days after Kennedy's announcement, reveals numbers that underline the potential threat to Biden's campaign. In a hypothetical three-way race between Kennedy, former President Donald Trump, and President Biden, the results showed Biden and Trump tied at 41 percent, while Kennedy garnered 16 percent of the vote.

Similarly, a Zogby survey conducted for the pro-Kennedy PAC American Values 2024 found that Trump and Biden were tied at 38 percent, with Kennedy pulling 19 percent of the vote.

Notably, when a generic independent candidate was considered alongside Trump and Biden, Trump actually won the hypothetical race, receiving 40 percent of the vote to Biden's 38 percent. However, Kennedy, a prominent anti-vaxxer, also appeared to draw support away from Trump, further emphasizing the challenge to Biden.

"Based on that, today we have some votes taken away from Trump - but there is still over a year out, and considering the American political landscape, and geopolitical hot spots, a lot can happen between today and election day," pollster Jeremy Zogby told the Daily Mail. 

The American political landscape is dynamic, and various factors, including geopolitical developments, can influence the outcome. However, the numbers are telling a story of increasing concern for Biden's campaign.

An unpredictable landscape

Fox News also conducted a separate survey that looked at different scenarios. When just Biden and Trump were on the ballot, Biden had a one-point lead, with 49 percent support compared to Trump's 48 percent. However, when Kennedy was added to the mix, Biden lost that lead, while he and Trump tied.

The numbers show that Biden's once comfortable lead vanishes when Kennedy is in the equation. Adding another layer of complexity to the race, academic Cornel West has already entered as the Green Party's candidate, potentially setting the stage for a four-way general election.

Fox did not test this scenario, but their findings suggested that West could damage Biden more than Kennedy.

West's appeal to the left wing of the Democratic Party, given his alignment with Senator Bernie Sanders in past election cycles, may draw votes away from Biden, leading to Trump's advantage in a three-way race.

One interesting aspect of the data is the differential impact on independent voters. Fox's survey revealed that independents were more likely to support Kennedy (41 percent) compared to West (28 percent), which posed a challenge to Trump. This suggests that independent voters, who often sway elections, could be a key battleground. This battleground, though, appears to be tilting against Biden.

Republican favorability quandary

Republican pollster Daron Shaw pointed out that third-party or independent candidates tend to draw disproportionately from less engaged and more independent voters, which is reflected in this poll. The speculation regarding the candidates' impact on the major parties is based on a combination of factors, including political alignment and voter demographics.

A Quinnipiac University poll added another layer to the analysis, revealing that Kennedy was viewed more favorably by Republicans, with 48 percent having a favorable view of him. In contrast, only 14 percent of Democrats had a favorable view of Kennedy. Among independents, 38 percent viewed him favorably, while 37 percent held an unfavorable view.

It's worth noting that the biggest hurdle for any independent or third-party candidate remains ballot access. Traditionally, candidates run in the Democratic or Republican primaries because those parties have guaranteed spots on ballots across the nation. However, lesser-known parties like the Green Party and the Libertarian Party also have reserved spaces.

The moderate group No Labels is considering fielding a candidate and will decide in April. Notably, reports of Kennedy's meeting with the chair of the Libertarian Party have fueled speculation that he could appear as their candidate.

Recent polling from NBC News indicated that when multiple third-party candidates are on the ballot, it can alter the dynamics, potentially diminishing the chances of major-party candidates.

Social media buzz

One thing is clear -- Robert F Kennedy Jr's independent bid poses a substantial threat to President Biden's campaign, and the numbers indicate that this threat is real and growing. Social media was inundated with reactions to the move, with some already eulogizing Biden's re-election campaign.

"This helps Trump right? No Rs are going to vote for Kennedy…. I’m guessing few POCs that were inclined to vote for Trump either? Dems who don’t like Biden will vote for Kennedy and that’s about it… Am I missing something?" one user posted on X.

"The Trump supporters are not voting for him, the independents aren’t voting for Trump anyway, so this will hurt the Democrats more," another user opined.

"Well... he has more people than a Biden rally," someone else added.

"Seems to have a lot more excitement than @JoeBiden receives at his campaign events," another offered.