Coronavirus: Releasing young people from lockdowns could save lives and bolster economy, predict researchers
The end to the coronavirus pandemic appears nowhere in sight.
Even if the US manages to control the spread, the crisis could be far from over as easing restrictions for all could trigger a second wave of infections, experts warn, suggesting that any premature exit strategy could spell doom. So scientists are understandably looking at exit strategies that do not end in a disaster. One such strategy includes lifting restrictions for Americans under 39. UK economists are also weighing the idea. The strategy might be able to lower deaths, reduce ICU burden, and revive the already sinking economy. The logic behind the strategy is simple: the young are less likely to die from COVID-19.
"It has been widely reported, mortality rates from COVID-19 vary by orders of magnitude between younger and older individuals," Dr. Maria Chikina from the University of Pittsburgh and one of the scientists working on the idea, told MEA WorldWide (MEAWW).
This disparity between the old and young prompted Dr. Chikina and Dr. Wesley Pegden from Carnegie Mellon University to study the possible outcomes of lifting restrictions for the latter. "The intuitive idea is to minimize the number of older, at-risk individuals from becoming part of the eventually infected population," explains Dr. Chikina.
The duo developed a model—that mimics real-life conditions—to predict the outcomes of the strategy. Releasing restrictions for everybody under 39 could bring the death toll to 390,000 while only releasing two-thirds might lower it to 900,000 deaths. Without these mitigations, they predict, the death toll is likely to stand at 1.5 million.
"The key finding is that relaxing mitigation on younger individuals may have a very beneficial effect on total COVID-19 mortalities and ICU utilization," explained Dr. Chikina.
The study has a few limitations. It does not consider the effects of weather and school closings, Dr. David Sinclair, Harvard Medical School, explained in a tweet. He added that we must proceed cautiously before returning to normalcy.
Dr. Chikina added that the findings are based on mathematical modeling, which tends to oversimplify reality. For now, she believes that maintaining mitigations strongly, until a vaccine becomes available, would go a long way in saving lives.
What are UK economists saying?
To save the country from a recession, UK economists have proposed releasing people aged 20-30 years-old, who no longer live with their parents from lockdowns. The UK is in its third week of lockdown.
This measure, if implemented, could free 4.2 million young adults, who can then resume work and save the economy. Enacting this measure could result in about 630 extra premature deaths, they say
In their study, economists acknowledge that lockdown saves lives in the short to medium term. But it damages the economy, they added.
“If this policy were enacted, there would still be tragic cases and some pressure on the NHS, but the effects would be far smaller than if the wider population were released," Nick Powdthavee, Professor of Behavioural Economics at Warwick Business School, said in a statement.