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Coronavirus outbreaks in overcrowded US prisons could kill 100,000 more Americans, warn experts

The government might be able to save more lives if they reduce the inmate population, predicts the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), a non-profit organization
PUBLISHED APR 24, 2020
(Getty Images)
(Getty Images)

Prison coronavirus outbreaks could kill 100,000 more Americans if the government fails to take steps to reduce the inmate population, according to a prediction by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), a non-profit organization.

Across the US, as many as 200,000 people could die — double the government's estimate, says the ACLU.  Recently, the Trump administration revised the projected death toll to around 60,000. ACLU partnered with epidemiologists, mathematicians and statisticians to arrive at these predictions.

"We are likely facing a massive loss of life — both in jails and in communities around the country — if dramatic steps aren’t taken to reduce the incarcerated population in this country," Udi Ofer, director of the ACLU’s Justice Division, said in a statement.

This data is a wakeup call as to the true cost of 50 years of mass incarceration and its impact on communities across the nation, disproportionately communities of color," he added. US prisons house the most inmates on any given day with almost 740,000 people in jail.

US prisons could become epicenters of outbreak

Disease outbreaks can take hold in prisons, thanks to overcrowding, lack of access to hygiene and substandard health care. COVID-19 has already infected hundreds of prisoners.

Overcrowding means prisoners do not get good quality health care. According to the 2011 US Supreme Court's ruling, overcrowding jeopardized health care in California's prisons, which lead to avoidable deaths.

Signs pleading for help hang in windows at the Cook County jail complex on April 09, 2020, in Chicago, Illinois (Getty Images)

While the whole country practices social distancing, prisoners do not have that choice. "Social distancing is nearly impossible except in solitary confinement, but that poses its dangers to mental and physical health," Dr Ashley Rubin from the University of Hawai, wrote in The Conversation.

What is worse, many inmates suffer from health conditions that make them vulnerable to COVID-19. About 40% of all incarcerated people suffer from at least one chronic health condition, such as asthma or diabetes, according to ACLU.  

"Amid a worldwide pandemic, such conditions are treacherous. Some of the worst COVID-19 outbreaks in US prisons and jails are in places – like Louisiana and Chicago – whose prison health systems have been ruled unconstitutionally inadequate," Dr Rubin said.

Experts have pointed out that American prisons have always posed a public health crisis but the pandemic has pushed it past the breaking point. "We are never going to be able to end this pandemic until we begin addressing the role that mass incarceration plays," Ofer said.

Some states have released prison inmates since the outbreak took force in the US. New York, California and Ohio were among the first to release them.

What can be done to reduce blow?

ACLU predicts that authorities might be able to save 12,000 lives in jails and 47,000 lives in the surrounding communities if they dramatically reduce arrests by 50%.

The offer another solution: adopting aggressive measures such as only arresting people for serious crimes such as murder, rape, and aggravated assault and doubling the rate of release for those already detained, could save as many as 23,000 people in jail and 76,000 in the broader community.

Other experts are also making a case for release. Criminologists and advocates say many more people should be released from jails and prison, even some convicted of violent crimes if they have underlying health conditions, Dr Rubin said.

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