Coronavirus may continue to plague Americans in 2021 and settle down permanently like flu
The coronavirus outbreak may not die out soon in the US. It is expected to stay and infect people well into next year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
"Based on the data, we know that as the trajectory of the outbreak continues, many people in the US will at some point, either this year or next, be exposed to this virus." Nancy Messonnier of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said during a telebriefing. This is because coronavirus, like other viruses that cause respiratory illness, are difficult to control. Some experts have predicted that the new virus could become endemic, meaning it could permanently settle down like the flu.
So far, the virus has sickened more than 700 Americans across 37 states, nearly half of which are concentrated in California and Washington. The virus has killed 26 people and eight have recovered.
There is a good chance many will become sick because the virus is new and people have no immunity against it, she added. The virus is extremely contagious, spreading easily between people.
However, based on what we know about the virus, "we do not expect most people to develop serious illness," Messonnier said, pointing toward data from China.
Data from other countries, according to Messonnier, will help us understand the potential risk in the US. Reports from China that looked at more than 70,000 patients found that 80% of illness is mild. The rate of recovery appears to be reassuring. "Of the 80,000 reported cases in China, more than 70% have recovered and been discharged," the World Health Organization also said during a press briefing.
About 15-20% of those infected have developed a serious illness, according to Chinese data. People over the age of 80 and those with other health conditions are more prone to developing severe symptoms.
Data from South Korea and Japan have shown that risk is lower among the younger population. No one under the age of 30 in South Korea and no one under the age of 50 in Japan has died, she explained.
Other countries have shown that certain interventions can slow down the virus. For instance, China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore have been successful in controlling the spread, according to the WHO.
"People need to listen to health authorities, and protect themselves, their families, and their communities. Reducing the spread of the disease will also reduce the burden the health care system could face. There are personal responsibilities that we’re asking everyone in the US to take,” Messonnier said.