2020 Presidential Elections State-by-State Guide: Donald Trump is certain to hold 'complex state' North Dakota
State
NORTH DAKOTA
Caucus/Primary dates
March 10, 2020 (Tuesday)
Type: Democratic Caucuses: Open/ Republican Primaries: Closed
Democratic delegates: 18 (14 pledged, 4 super)
Republican delegates: 28
Governor
Doug Burgum (Republican)
Senators:
John Hoeven (R) & Kavin Cramer (R)
Representative: 1
Kelly Armstrong (R)
Electoral college votes: 3
Donald Trump won all of them in 2016
How North Dakota has voted in the past
North Dakota joined the Union in November 1889 along with three other states and it has been primarily a Republican state. In 32 presidential elections so far, North Dakota has voted for the GOP 26 times while the Democrats could win only five times.
A third-party candidate in James B Weaver had won the very first presidential election in the Peace Garden State in 1892. The last time a Democratic candidate won North Dakota was in 1964 when LBJ defeated Barry Goldwater.
Even popular Democratic presidents like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have faced big losses in the northern state. In 2016, Trump secured a massive victory over opponent Hillary Clinton (63 percent to 27 percent).
North Dakota called 'most complex state'
North Dakota is unique in the sense that while it is a strong GOP state, the Democrats haven’t been losers here either traditionally since they have maintained a place for themselves in the local bodies. The Dems once had a solid delegation to the Congress.
The state's constitution empowers the voters but yet the political leadership has in the past dominated them and the situation compelled writer John Gunther to call it the "most complex [state] in the entire nation."
There are certain theories to explain the Republicans’ dominance of the Peace Garden State. One says it is the Republican Party that had helped North Dakota gain statehood while the Congressional Democrats were not too much in favor.
According to another explanation, the two largest ethnic groups in the state — Norwegians and Germans from Russia — are supporters of the GOP.
The Nonpartisan League had in the late 1910s challenged the GOP’s control on the state politics but waned out after 1920. The state's politics started taking a more conservative turn by the late 1930s when opposition to one of its most prominent politicians William Langer grew stronger.
North Dakota and 2020 presidential election
North Dakota is the only state that doesn't require voter registration and it makes it difficult to assess its electoral outcomes as personal connections between the voters and leaders matter a lot. However, the Democratic leadership in the state is concerned over the impeachment of President Trump who won big here in 2016.
Although Trump’s approval rating came down since then, he still has a stronghold over North Dakota's rural vote bank. Collin Peterson, a Democratic Congressman from the neighboring Minnesota who was born in North Dakota, has sensed the danger and has not voted against the president in the recent impeachment vote.
North Dakota Democratic Party Chairperson Kylie Oversen although stressed on capitalizing on the sentiments of the working class and local farmers and focused on healthcare and labor issues, she also felt that the impeachment issue will impact both the Republicans and Democrats' presidential campaigns alike.
Trump, who succeeded in expanding the GOP's winning margin in North Dakota between 2012 and 2016 by focusing on the pro-fossil fuel energy agenda, has a plus-nine approval rating in the state this time.
On the Democratic front, Bernie Sanders had won the state caucuses by nearly 40 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Joe Biden and Sanders are tied with seven delegates each in ND.
With the Republicans dominating ND in presidential, congressional and Senate elections, it is very likely that Trump will carry it once more in 2020.