2020 Presidential Elections State-by-State Guide: Illinois almost certain to go to Dems thanks to suburban votes
State
ILLINOIS
Primary dates
March 17, 2020 (Tuesday)
Type: Mixed
Democratic delegates: 184 (155 pledged, 19 super)
Republican delegates: 67
Governor
Jay Robert Pritzker (Democratic)
Senators
Richard Durbin (D) & Tammy Duckworth (D)
Representatives: 18
Thirteen Democratic: Bobby Rush (1st district), Robin Kelly (2nd district), Daniel Lipinski (3rd district), Jesus Garcia (4th district), Mike Quigley (5th district), Sean Casten (6th district), Danny Davis (7th district), Raja Krishnamoorthi (8th district), Janice Schakowsky (9th district), Bradley Schneider (10th district), Bill Foster (11th district), Lauren Underwood (14th district), Cheri Bustos (17th district)
Five Republican: Mike Bost (12th district), Rodney Davis (13th district), John Shimkus (15th district), Adam Kinzinger (16th district), Darin LaHood (18th district)
Electoral college votes: 20
Hillary Clinton won all of them in 2016
How Illinois has voted in presidential elections in the past
After becoming a state in 1818, Illinois largely remained a red state, till the 1920s when the blue took over. The Democrats won the Land of Lincoln throughout the Great Depression and World War II before it swung back to the Republicans who won eight out of 10 elections between 1952 and 1988. Since then, Illinois has been backing the Dems and in 2016, Hillary Clinton decimated Donald Trump here by winning all 20 electoral votes. She won over Trump by 56-39 percentage points.
Illinois has the largest electoral prize in the Midwest though its electoral influence has reduced over the years (it had 29 electoral votes in 1940) and it could lose two more of the electoral votes after the 2020 elections. In that case, it will be the first time since 1868 that Illinois will have less than 20 electoral votes.
A safe blue state
For most part of the 20th century, the GOP and Dems were evenly matched in the Prairie State. The Dems were mostly based in Chicago-proper and Southern Illinois while the Republicans prevailed in the suburbs and prairie counties. The GOP was successful between the 1940s and late 1980s and they won several presidential elections in this time and also held the governor’s office for 26 years in a row.
In 1992, Bill Clinton won Illinois as a Democrat after 28 years and since then, there has been no looking back for the Dems. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Illinois by an even bigger margin than the former’s 1992 victory (he won bigger in 1996) but she could win only 12 counties, most in the Chicago area.
Since 2000, when the red-blue division started becoming more prominent in the US, the Dems have become a party of the urbanized, well-educated voters and they have appealed more to the suburbanites who believe in moderate values.
Till the time the Republican Party in the Midwest and Northeast valued moderates, it won the suburbs. But as conservative partisans started taking over the party, the suburbanites felt alienated, leaving the GOP in jeopardy in the home state of the great Abraham Lincoln. Franklin in Southern Illinois coal country which was once a Democratic stronghold has become a GOP base now and the state’s Republicans have their hopes banking on those zones.
Illinois and 2020 presidential election
The GOP is hoping against hope that the solid blue state will be kinder to Trump this time but it is not very likely.
The president made his maiden visit to Illinois in July 2018, more than one-and-half years ago after taking charge and there were signs that his move to impose tariffs on foreign steel producers found an appreciation in the state. But his visit to Chicago last October was more a sour episode as he slammed the city over its crime statistics and its top police officer and mayor stayed away from his event, prompting more controversy.
It was his maiden visit to Chicago and it shows how the blue city finds itself at odds with the red president. Trump’s net approval rate in Illinois is minus 18. In the 2016 primary, Trump won Illinois with 39 percent votes, nine more than the closest competitor Ted Cruz.
On the Democratic side, Joe Biden appears to be in a strong position ahead of the Illinois primary with double-digit leads over Bernie Sanders, his only major rival now. While the Gravis poll showed Biden has a 38-point lead over Sanders, Emerson College poll showed it at 21 points. Biden has also been endorsed by Chicago’s Mayor Lori Lightfoot.
In the 2016 Democratic primary in Illinois, Sanders lost narrowly to Hillary Clinton by less than two percent.