2020 Presidential Elections State-by-State Guide: Republicans set to retain control over Idaho
State:
IDAHO
Primary dates:
March 10, 2020 (Tuesday)
Type: Open
Democratic delegates: 25 (pledged 20, super 5)
Republican delegates: 21
Governor:
Brad Little (Republican)
Senators:
Michael Crapo (R) & James Risch (R)
Representatives: 2
Both Republicans: Russ Fulcher (1st district); Michael Mike Simpson (2nd district)
Electoral college votes: 4
Donald Trump won all in 2016
How Idaho has voted in presidential elections in the past
Idaho had voted for the Democratic Party five consecutive times between 1932 and 1952 but ever since Dwight D Eisenhower won it that year, the Mountain West state became an unbreachable red fort as it was in its earlier days of statehood. Between 1952 and 2016, the Democrats could win the state only once and it was in 1964 when Lyndon B Johnson narrowly beat Barry Goldwater even though he had a landslide victory nationwide. Even GOP candidates who have lost in presidential elections nationally, won in Idaho. In 2016, Trump received 59.25 percent of votes in Idaho while his opponent Hillary Clinton got around 27.48 percent.
Reds have dominated Idaho
The Gem State is one of the “reddest” states of the US. Though the Republicans have looked invincible in this state over several decades now, the Dems were competitive too till the recent history. In the early 20th century, the two parties were close with the Dems giving the GOP a tight run. During the Great Depression, the Democrats had their best of times in Idaho by controlling both the state House and Senate. In the 1970s, the Dems suffered a body blow as the members of the Mormon Church deserted them after they embraced issues like feminism and abortion rights. By the 1980s, the unions in the state were also on the decline and that hurt the Dems’ prospects as they were dependent on the mining and timber industries.
In the late 1980s, division among Republicans allowed the Dems to make a comeback and the popularity of Cecil Andrus, the state’s four-time Democratic governor, was a key factor that helped them. But the GOP had their man in former lieutenant governor Phil Batt who united the party while the Dems kept overlooking the party’s organizational well-being, thanks to Andrus’ own popularity. Batt replaced Andrus in 1995 and the Dems’ fortunes have not rebounded since then. The Democrats’ embracing environmental movement also alienated many of their followers in the state who worked in the timber industry. And then there was the opposition to the ‘Californication of Idaho’ that also added to the conservatives’ comfort.
Idaho and 2020 presidential poll
Trump remains a highly popular figure in Idaho with 59 percent rating, as one poll by Idaho Politics Weekly found. One recent report even said that books criticizing the president and on social issues continue to go missing at a big public library in the state. While it is being speculated that people coming to the state, especially from California, is turning Idaho into a blue state, data showed that it is not the case as the number of Republican voters have outnumbered their increasing Democratic voters by far. June 2019 data showed that Idaho had 856,511 registered voters which is about 43,000 more than that found in November 2016. And Republican supporters made up 50.8 percent of that number with a jump of almost 20,000 since November 2013. Registered Democrat voters, on the other hand, grew to 108,607.
Idaho is the fastest-growing state in the US and with the Republicans keeping their control, the general belief is that the state’s politics is a stable, one-way traffic going to Trump’s favor. Yet, with politics and economics lying in positive alignment, political observers feel the situation could be pivotal for both the GOP and Dems even if prosperity and the arrival of new voters push them towards getting more moderate or the exact opposite happens.
In 2016, Trump lost to Ted Cruz in the Idaho primaries (28 percent to 45 percent) while in the Democratic field, Bernie Sanders registered a massive victory over Hillary (78 percent to 21 percent) in the caucuses (this year, the Dems have shifted to the primary). This time, around Trump, who has a net approval rate of plus 19 in Idaho, looks strong to bag the state. In the Democratic primary, Joe Biden looks favorite to win 58 percent of the votes, according to a forecast made by FiveThirtyEight.com.