Almost 200,000 Americans could die if stay-at-home, social distancing orders are lifted after 30 days: Report
If the US lifts restrictions such as stay-at-home orders or social distancing after May 1, the country could witness a fresh surge in coronavirus cases in summer, reveal new projections from the departments of Homeland Security and Health (HHS).
Lifting stay-at-home orders or social distancing after 30 days could kill as many as 200,000 Americans, according to HHS projections reported by the New York Times. It is poised to get worse without mitigation as the HHS predicts a death toll of 300,000 if authorities do nothing to stem the spread.
Currently, at least 43 states have issued stay-at-home orders. The US has more than half a million cases now and New York state alone reportedly has more cases than most other countries in the world.
"It is enough to say that if we were to stop at the national level May 1, we are seeing a return to almost where we are now sometime in July," Dr Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, said in an interview with CNN.
He added that the premature easing of restrictions without adequate testing and contact tracing, among other safeguards, could trigger a surge in infections and deaths.
The HHS has predicted the outcomes of three scenarios. In the first, authorities ignore mitigation measures. In the second, schools stay shut, while 25% of Americans continue to telework and some degree of social distancing stays in place. They call this the "steady-state" restrictions. The third scenario pictures the consequences of discontinuing the stay-at-home order after 30 days.
If authorities discontinue stay-at-home, the HHS predicts 165 million infections in the country and 200,000 deaths. In the no-mitigation scenario, 195 million are expected to contract the infection. The death toll is predicted to stand at 300,000.
The demand for ventilators is also set to rise. The US might witness a major spike in infections about 100 days after and peaking in 150 days if the 30-day stay-at-home order is discontinued.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said he is pondering over when he can reopen the economy and relax social distancing guidelines. This will be "the biggest decision I’ll ever make," he told reporters during a press briefing on Friday, April 10.
Before making his decision, Trump said he would consider the advice of health experts. However, he added, he will also talk to business leaders. He is expected to assemble a new task force with them next week.
Warning of the premature lifting of restrictions, the White House's top infectious disease expert, Dr Anthony S. Fauci, who is the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at the press briefing that it is important to continue identifying, isolating and tracking cases.
According to the New York Times, these projections might not hold now. Thanks to aggressive social distancing, White House has now revised its data on the projected death rates: it is now 60,000 from an earlier estimate of at least 100,000 deaths.