Wuhan coronavirus: Could it become a pandemic? Likely, if the virus is able to survive in other continents
On December 29, 2019, in Wuhan, China, four employees of the Huanan Seafood Market fell ill with flu-like symptoms. When the generic flu medication did not work, and their condition worsened and spread, experts examined the influenza virus affecting them, and it turned to be a new strain of what is now being called a novel coronavirus, termed as “2019-nCoV." With a steadily increasing death toll of 41, as of January 25, and at least 1287 confirmed cases in China alone, there are rising fears that the virus will soon swell into a pandemic.
Just hours before publication, the United States confirmed its second case of the coronavirus from a passenger coming from Wuhan to Chicago. Multiple other countries have also detected the new virus cases, including France, Thailand, Singapore, Nepal, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea. Meanwhile, there are other countries like the U.K., Australia, and India, where people with potential symptoms of the virus are being screened and monitored.
Coronavirus generally affects the respiratory tract and can lead to illnesses like the common cold or pneumonia. The world previously witnessed a coronavirus outbreak with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which also originated in China, and affected nearly 8,000 people from 2002 and 2003. The SARS virus claimed 774 lives. Similarly, another strain of coronavirus, the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), has claimed over 840 lives from 2012 to 2019 so far. None of these viruses, including the newest coronavirus strain have a vaccine yet.
With China confirming human-to-human transmission of the mysterious virus earlier this week, and its enduring spread across continents, there are concerns of the virus turning out to be a pandemic.
What is a pandemic?
A pandemic occurs with a swift spread of a new disease across major continents, with most people not immunized to the virus. Viruses, which have resulted in pandemics in the past, typically originated from animal influenza viruses, like the H1N1 pandemic, more commonly known as the swine flu. The new coronavirus is believed to have originated at the Huanan seafood market that sold live animals.
Experts believe that the virus likely spread from snakes or bats, and was likely later transmitted to humans through an intermediary species. The region or expected origin has been put on lockdown as scientists investigate the affected area for more possible information on the virus. Till now, at least 11 cities in China's central Hubei province are facing travel restrictions, with tens of millions of people on lockdown.
Although the new coronavirus does not appear to have had as swift a spread as SARS, according to the World Health Organization's guideline document on pandemics, the new virus appears to be heading that way.
What pandemic stage is the virus in?
There are a total of six stages to reaching a pandemic level outbreak of a new disease, according to the WHO:
Phase 1 of pandemic influenza states: Animal influenza virus circulating among animals to cause infection in humans.
Phase 2 states: An animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals to have caused infections in humans and therefore considered a specific potential pandemic threat.
Phase 3 states: An animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus causing sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but not resulting in human to human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks.
Phase 4 states: Human to human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to sustain community-level outbreaks verified.
Stage 5 states: Same identified virus causing sustained community-level outbreaks in two or more countries in one WHO region.
Phase 6 states: In addition to stage 5, the same virus causing sustained community-level outbreaks in one other country in another WHO region.
The new coronavirus is currently in Phase 4, with the Chinese government confirming human to human transmission. In an alarming update, a "super spreader" has been identified in China. Reports state that a single patient has infected at least 14 health care workers, and similar super spreaders will contribute to the virus being spread at a swifter rate.
When will it become a pandemic?
Although the virus is spreading fast, it remains to be seen whether the particular strain of the virus in fresh cases detected in new continents and countries can sustain in the atmosphere and spread. If the new coronavirus begins spreading from fresh cases in countries like the US, France, India, and Australia, it will likely cause a pandemic. However, for now, that data has not yet been ascertained, and the cases appear to be contained.
It is also not yet clear if the new virus will continue to keep its current low fatality rate or whether it will mutate and adapt. Considering the risks of the virus continue to remain unknown at present, the WHO has not yet declared the new coronavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. However, the global health agency has stressed the requirement of continual surveillance and consistent re-evaluation of the issue at hand.