Trump could win 2020 elections with bigger vote tally than 2016, predicts Moody's Analytics
The model failed to make a correct prediction only in 2016 when Trump won has now three sub-models to make the analysis and it considers only a very high turnout can save the Democrats this time.
Elections mark busy engagements for not only the political workers and their leaders but also fortune-tellers -- be it human beings or models. According to one model that has predicted a presidential election model wrongly only once since 1980, incumbent Donald Trump will win the 2020 contest.
Moody’s Analytics came up with the results of its 2020 election prediction model on Tuesday, October 15, and it showed Trump winning with a bigger tally of electoral votes compared to 2016, given the turnout remains close to the historical average.
The model banks on political dynamics but takes into consideration the economic factors. It showed that if the economy remained robust and the voter turnout met the historical average or is low, Trump would win convincingly. It also said that if the voter turnout is at a historical high, the US could get a Democratic president who is likely to win a close race with 279 electoral voters which is a narrow lead over the threshold of 270.
The analysis is prepared by Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi, director of government consulting and public finance research Dan White and assistant director-economist Bernard Yaros. "If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," the authors said, adding that turnout is key in next year’s election.
There are in all three parts of the model and all of them show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, considering the turnout to be average. The Republican’s chances reduce only if there is more turnout on the Democrats’ side. Trump does the best under the ‘pocketbook’ model which is about how people feel about their finances. Under this, he gets 351 electoral votes to the Democrats’ 187. In the stock-market model, Trump gets 289-249 votes while under the underemployment model, he has a 332-206 lead. Across the three models, the incumbent president wins 324-214.
Moody's Analytics' model predicted results correctly since 1980 barring 2016
The Moody’s Analytics model has correctly predicted every presidential election’s result correctly barring the 2016 one when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton who got 227 electoral votes as against Trump’s 304. The analysts broke down the single model into three after the 2016 predictions came out to be incorrect (it predicted a narrow victory for Hillary) and took the average of the three.
Given Trump’s low favorability ratings (40 percent as per the latest Gallup poll), and especially in the wake of the impeachment inquiry, the results predicted might make his critics surprised but according to the report, the president’s relatively stable ratings give a good benchmark for how he will do once the elections arrive.
Zandi also said the race could eventually come down to a few counties in Pennsylvania which Trump flipped in 2016 after the state had favored the Democrats in the previous five presidential polls.