US could see 300,000 deaths by December but toll could fall by 49% if more Americans wore masks, predicts study
Close to 300,000 Americans are expected to die from Covid-19 by December 1, according to a model whose predictions were previously used by the White House. The forecast, however, could see a decline if more people masked up, data suggests.
If the US death toll reaches 300,000 by December, Covid-19 could be the third biggest killer after heart disease and cancer. According to predictions from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the country could witness 295,011 deaths by December. Currently, the disease has claimed 162,422 lives. Researchers are projecting about 137,000 more fatalities. But that could change if 95% of Americans wore masks while stepping out. The toll could fall by 49% to 228,271 deaths, they add.
Covering the face could save as many as 66,000 lives. "Masks and other protective measures against transmission of the virus are essential to staying Covid-free, but people's inconsistent use of those measures is a serious problem," IHME Director Dr Christopher Murray, says in a statement.
"We're seeing a rollercoaster in the United States," Murray says. "It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while, as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others – which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again."
Murray says that public behavior has a bearing on how Covid-19 moves and kills people. For instance, Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas are seeing fewer new infections now, thanks to local mandates for mask use, bar and restaurant closures, and more responsible behavior by the public. Still, the number of deaths will continue to rise over the next 14 days, they predict.
The researchers project that new infections, hospitalizations and death will increase in the next several weeks in Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon and Virginia. These states may "see a response toward more responsible behavior," says Murray.
They also add that mask mandates with penalties have a higher impact as the use of face covering rose by 15% points in the US. "These efforts, along with media coverage and public information efforts by state and local health agencies and others, have led to an increase in the US rate of mask-wearing by about 5 percentage points since mid-July," explains Murray.
If more than 95% of people used face covering, states might be able to delay reimposing stricter mandates such as non-essential business closures and stay-at-home orders by six to eight weeks, on average.
To arrive at the forecast, researches assumed that 50% of school districts in each state will opt for online instruction for the 2020–2021 school year. "As data emerge on actual school patterns, we will incorporate them into our future revisions of forecasts," notes Murray. "We recognize that, given mask-wearing, the likely restrictions on after-school activities, and the potential for some parents to avoid engaging in school-related functions, our estimated impact of school openings may be overly pessimistic."