2020 Presidential Elections State-by-State Guide: Trump unlikely to repeat 2016 show in blue-leaning Michigan
State
Michigan
Primary dates
March 10, 2020 (Tuesday)
Type: Open
Democratic Delegates: 147 (125 pledges, 22 super)
Republican Delegates: 73
Governor
Gretchen Whitmer (Democratic)
Senators
Debbie Stabenow (D) & Gary Peters (D)
Representatives: 14
Democratic: Daniel Kildee (4th district), Elissa Slotkin (8th district), Andy Levin (9th district), Haley Stevens (11th district), Debbie Dingell (12th district), Rashida Tlaib (13th district), Brenda Lawrence (14th district)
Republican: Jack Bergman (1st district), Bill Huizenga (2nd district), John Moolenaar (4th district), Fred Upton (6th district), Tim Walberg (7th district), Paul Mitchell (10th district);
Independent: Justin Amash (3rd district)
Electoral college votes: 16
Donald Trump won all of them in 2016
How Michigan has voted in the past
Michigan joined the Union in 1837 and till the Great Depression, it voted for the GOP. Between the 1930s through to the late 1960s, The Great Lake(s) state oscillated between the red and blue. Between 1972 and 1988, Michigan sided with the Republicans and then between 1992 and 2012, it turned blue again. The Dems almost kept Michigan in their kitty in 2016, but Trump narrowly won it against Hillary Clinton, by just 0.2%. Michigan has lost electoral votes steadily over the last four decades (it had 21 till 1980), thanks to a slow population growth because of economic turmoil since the 1970s following chaos in its automobile hub. It can lose another after the 2020 election.
Michigan, a blue-leaning state that went GOP in 2016:
Michigan or the Great Lake(s) State is though politically competitive in state-level races, it hadn’t voted a Republican for president between 1988 and 2016, when Trump won it very narrowly. It was one of the three states — along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — which enabled Trump to win the presidency by a healthy Electoral College margin, thanks to a surge in blue-collar voters in industrial areas that are on decline and apparent indifference from the campaign of Hillary Clinton.
Michigan was heavily Republican between the 1850s and the 1920s and became one with an equipoise during the 1930s. The 1960 election saw a seesaw battle with John F Kennedy securing a 51%-49% victory. He carried metro Detroit while opponent Richard Nixon carried outstate Michigan. Outstate Michigan has become more Democratic since then while whites in metro Detroit have become more GOP. In the relatively prosperous 1990s, Michigan tilted toward Republicans in statewide contests while in the tougher days of 2000s, the state turned Democratic. Starting in 1992, Michigan became a cornerstone in the so-called "blue wall" that boosted the Democrats’ standard-bearers in accumulating 270 Electoral College votes to win the White House. Factors like unions not getting out their Democratic votes and Hillary’s national team not overseeing a better organization in Michigan are considered reasons for her narrow defeat against Trump in 2016.
Michigan 2020
In 2016, Trump won Michigan’s 16 electoral votes by less than 11,000 votes out of nearly five million cast. His campaign team hopes he improves the gap this time though the president’s net approval rate in the Wolverine State is minus 10. The state recently picked Democrats (all women) for other top positions like governor, attorney general and secretary of state besides flipping two previously Republican congressional seats blue. Trump has also been shown facing a tough challenge against the top Democratic candidates.
The outcome in Michigan will be determined by the way the suburban voters, who largely avoided voting last time, cast their ballots this time. The African-American voters in Detroit and elsewhere will also be significant.
On the Democratic front, Joe Biden was leading at 38% followed by Bernie Sanders at 30%. The latest poll, released on March 3, showed Biden at 29% and Sanders at 23%. With the race now virtually narrowing down between the former vice president and Vermont senator, those figures are certain to be more tight.
A University of Wisconsin/State Journal poll showed Sanders having a nine-point lead over Biden in Michigan while a Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll showed Biden having a lead by six points. The poll showing Sanders leading though was conducted before Biden picked some big wins in South Carolina on February 29 and Super Tuesday on March 3.
Biden has also bagged some key endorsements from Michigan’s high-profile lawmakers, including its Governor Gretchen Whitmer and is expected to win a big vote from the African-Americans in the state.
Sanders has done well among the Hispanics and younger voters as it was seen in Nevada. In 2016, Sanders defeated Hillary narrowly in the Michigan Democratic primary.