Coronavirus could be MUCH worse than feared, only 10% of cases are being identified by tests, says expert
The number of coronavirus cases across the world could actually be ten times higher than what the real-time official estimates show, according to a leading British scientist. John Edmunds, a professor with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said that test modeling of the virus spread showed that the actual number of cases was likely "ten times more" that what has been reported – "or even more". The death toll in mainland China – where the outbreak began – has already reached 722, with a total of 31,211 confirmed cases. There have been a further 320 cases in 27 other countries, including three in Britain, and one death reported from the Philippines.
He added: "It’s a mild disease that might be missed if somebody doesn’t seek healthcare. And none of the tests is going to be 100 percent sensitive so it is not unusual to only capture maybe 10 percent of the cases." Even though the number of cases being reported is declining, it might be too early to celebrate because so much is unknown. Roughly 3,900 new cases were reported worldwide on February 5, compared with 3,700 on February 6 and 3,200 on February 7.
Edmunds is among the many experts who have warned the public that a vast majority of cases were likely to have been missed. Scientists have said that the rapid spread of the virus across borders, coupled with its suspected two-week incubation period and the unreliability of testing methods, made it difficult to track.
A Lancet study had stated earlier that people infected with Wuhan coronavirus may not even know they are carrying the disease since there might be no visible symptoms. Another report described asymptomatic transmission in Germany where "the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient (Chinese business partner), in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific".