Ex-FDA chief predicts over 100k COVID-19 deaths by June-end as mitigation 'didn't work as expected'
The US shifted its strategy to mitigate the coronavirus pandemic in early March. But the number of infections has been climbing, suggesting it was not very effective at curbing the spread of the virus, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb said.
At this rate, more than 100,000 Americans could die by the end of June, Gottlieb predicted. According to Johns Hopkins University, the death toll stands at 67,682 as of Sunday whereas the number of confirmed COVID-19 has shot past a million.
Recently in an interview with CBS, he said: "While mitigation did not fail, I think it is fair to say that it did not work as well as we expected. We expected that we would start seeing more significant declines in new cases and deaths around the nation at this point. And we are just not seeing that."
Gottlieb expressed his concerns over the rising cases in New York. "Well, when you look across the country, it is a mixed bag. Certainly, cases are falling in the Tri-State region around New York City. But when you back out what is happening in New York, and New York is driving a lot of the national statistics because it was such a large outbreak, around the nation, hospitalizations and new cases continue to rise," he added.
Twenty other US states, including Illinois, Texas, Maryland, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and Tennessee, are witnessing a daily growth in the number of coronavirus infections, he explained.
As a result, the former FDA commissioner predicts a higher death rate. Earlier, the White House used a model that predicted 60,000 fatalities by August. Later, researchers revised it, projecting that the virus could kill more than 72,000 Americans by August 4.
With more than 67,000 deaths, the US is already inching closer to the 72,000 mark. Gottlieb said, "It's really hard to predict beyond June where this goes because we could have large outbreaks or it could become quiescent in the summer. But I think when you look out to the end of June, it's probably the case that we're going to get above 100,000 deaths nationally."
"Right now we're seeing, for about 30 days now, about 30,000 thousand cases a day and 2,000 deaths a day. And if you factor in that we are probably diagnosing only one in 10 infections, those 30,000 cases are 300,000 cases," he told CBS.
He added that 20,000-30,000 new cases and thousand or more deaths a day might become the new normal in the country.
He said the number of cases might drop in summer and then pick up the pace again in fall. "But what happens when we come back in the fall and schools are back in session, colleges are back in session- residential college campuses. People are letting their guard down a little bit more. People are back at work after an August recess. And then you can see this slow simmer explode into a new epidemic or large outbreaks," he explained.
The US embraced measures to mitigate the disease spread in early March. These include getting hospitals ready, emphasizing on social distancing, and canceling mass gathering.
But according to a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), travel and large gatherings in February and March may have helped fuel the spread. Cryptic transmission resulting from limited testing and asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread also contributed to it.
"Targeted and communitywide mitigation efforts were needed to slow transmission," the report said.