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Coronavirus could kill 15 million, cause $2.4 trillion hit to global GDP in 'best-case scenario': Study

The Australian National University modeled seven scenarios of how the deadly virus may impact the world's health. And in the worst-case, it said 68 million could die
UPDATED MAR 19, 2020
(Getty Images)
(Getty Images)

Experts have predicted that the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak could lead to $2.4 trillion loss of global GDP and over 15 million deaths in the best-case scenario.

The Australian National University (ANU) modeled seven scenarios of how the deadly virus may impact the world's health — ranging from low-severity to high-severity, Business Insider reports.

While four of the scenarios examine the impact of the infection spreading to other countries outside of China, a seventh scenario examines a global impact from a mild pandemic that occurs each year indefinitely.

Travelers wearing face mask wait in line at the departure hall of West Kowloon Station on January 23, 2020, in Hong Kong, China (Getty Images)

But even the best-case scenario — the low-severity model in this case — estimated a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion and an estimated death toll of 15 million, ANU researchers revealed in the paper.

According to the report, the best-case scenario was modeled after the Hong Kong flu pandemic that occurred in 1968-69 and is estimated to have claimed over one million lives.

Meanwhile, the high-severity model estimates a global GDP loss of over $9 trillion with an estimated death toll of over 68 million. That said, the worst-case scenario was modeled after the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 17 to 50 million globally from 1918 to 1920.

Professor Warwick McKibbin, who teaches economics at ANU and is one of the paper's authors, said the "scenarios show that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run."

"Even in the best-case scenario of a low-severity impact, the economic fallout is going to be enormous and countries need to work together to limit the potential damage as much as possible," he added.

As the disease continues to spread, the research aims to help policymakers make the best decision to combat the economic impact of the outbreak.

"There needs to be vastly more investment in public health and development, especially in the poorest countries," McKibbin said. "It is too late to attempt to close borders once the disease has taken hold in many other countries and a global pandemic has started."

The novel coronavirus originated in China's Wuhan and has claimed nearly 3,300 lives and infected more than 95,000. As of Thursday, the virus has spread to at least 81 countries.

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