Coronavirus: As virus rears its head in Italy and Iran, experts worry containment strategy is failing
Scientists believe that the world is fast approaching a tipping point in the spread of the coronavirus, as coronavirus cases soar in South Korea, Iran and Italy.
"There has been a profound shift in the direction that COVID-19 is taking over the past 48 hours," Professor Devi Sridhar, Director of the Global Health Governance Programme at the University of Edinburgh Medical School, told AFP.
The fear is that the current measures to contain the spread may be ineffective, given how the infectious the virus is. The infection is emerging within a population with no reported links to China.
Attempting to isolate a single source with a connection to China is no longer an effective method of containment. "You can get it from anyone. We can expect to have cases of patients who had no contact (with possible carriers)," Luca Zaia, the regional president of Veneto, a town in Italy, told reporters.
"The World Health Organization (WHO) and its member state governments now need to be thinking about transitioning from containment to mitigation, ie. reducing the negative impacts of continued transmission," Sridhar warned.
In China, the virus has infected at least 77,000 people and killed 2,592. The number of new deaths rose to 150 a day after showing a small drop recently.
In a meeting with Communist Party leaders on February 23, Chinese President Xi Jinping called the epidemic "severely complex", noting that efforts to control the spread of the virus have entered a "crucial stage".
Emerging hotspots
A lot has happened over the week. For instance, in South Korea, the number of cases jumped from 31 on February 18 to 833 on February 24. More than half of these cases can be traced back to a cult organization named Shincheonji Church of Jesus in the city of Daegu. Church spokesman Simon Kim said Shincheonji has shut down all its 1,100 local churches and other facilities since one of its church members tested positive for the virus on February 18. Here the authorities have confirmed at least 400 cases. The death toll in the country stands at seven.
Besides South Korea, Japan is also witnessing similar circumstances. The country has reported 149 confirmed cases in addition to the 690 passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The country has reported four deaths so far.
After announcing two deaths on February 21 morning, the death toll in Iran has now touched 12. Reports say that 47 people have been infected.
Italy becomes the first country outside Asia to have been severely hit by the virus. From three cases on February 21, the number of confirmed infections is now 132 and three people have died.
On February 21, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the WHO, had expressed concerns over the 'narrowing window of opportunity' to tackle COVID-19, urging the international community to take action and counter the virus's spread.
How are these countries coping?
Countries have introduced a slew of measures to contain the spread of the virus, including quarantines, sealing off affected regions and banning public gatherings.
South Korea, which has the second highest burden of COVID-19 after China, has been placed on red alert. Some of the affected areas will be under lockdown, as its citizens brace themselves for travel restrictions within the country. Schools will remain closed.
In a public statement, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said emergency support was being deployed to Daegu — the country's outbreak epicenter. "Please avoid excessive anxiety, and trust the government's actions," Moon said.
Similarly, in Italy, over 11 affected towns have been placed on lockdown, including Lombardy, the hardest-hit region with 90 cases. The country has shut down schools, businesses and train stations. Public events such as the popular Venice Carnival and major league soccer matches have been canceled.
In response to Iran's uptick in cases, the government has closed schools, cultural and religious centers. The government has handed out masks and hand sanitizers across the country.
Speaking on state television, Health Minister Saeed Namaki asked residents not to panic over the recent rise in cases.